Golden opportunities for graying population
KPMG has produced a useful overview on the general shape of the investment opportunity in ageing across the world. Click here to download the report.
As ever the demographics suggest an enormous market. By 2030 the proportion of people over 65 should rise from 11% (814m) to 17% (1.4bn). By 2050 the figure hits 2bn. Assuming 12% need institutional care (and that is a big assumption) then there will be 240m people in residential care worldwide. That would be the equivalent of the fifth largest country (just ahead of Brazil).
The report goes on to look at how private pay models are developing and at how countries like Japan, Singapore and New Zealand have developed long-term care insurance policies. Japanese insurers have even started buying care operators.
It also highlignts how fast the provision of care is moving from the public to the private sector. In New Zealand is says the switch has been dramatic with 60pc now provided by for-profit operators. Similar switches are happening in Italy. Elsewhere Russia has launched a PPP for elderly care and Canada is selling off 75,000 licenced beds.
The report looks at how unconsolidated the sector is. In most Emerging Markets it is completely dominated by mom’n’pop boarding houses. Even in Spain the report claims that the five largest players still have just 9% of the market, that compares to 92% in Australia where the big players are starting to look abroad. Governments are starting to encourage bigger players. Brazil recently legislated to allow foreign direct investment in residential care.
But how people think and feel about elderly care in Emerging Markets remains a significant barrier. At the Healthcare Business International 2016 conference we were told that no one would open nursing homes in the Gulf for 10-15 years due to the taboo on farming out care for elderly relatives beyond the family. Similar issues remain in India and so has led to a huge rise in homecare, rather than residential care.
We would welcome your thoughts on this story. Email your views to Max Hotopf or call 0207 183 3779.
